How accurate are Visa Bulletin predictions?

Treat any prediction as a range. Movement depends on demand and annual limits that change every year, so even official projections can be revised.

How do I estimate when my priority date will be current from past bulletins?

Measure the gap between your date and the current cutoff, divide by the average yearly movement over several past years, and then look at the fastest and slowest years for a range.

Why does the Visa Bulletin move at the start of the fiscal year in October?

The fiscal year starts on October 1 with a fresh annual allocation of visa numbers, so the State Department often resets or advances cutoffs in the October bulletin.

Where does the State Department publish visa bulletin projections?

Inside the monthly Visa Bulletin itself, in notes after the charts when it has something to say about expected movement.

Visa Bulletin

When will my priority date become current?

Updated November 12, 2026 · Not legal advice

No one can give an exact date, including the State Department. A practical estimate divides how far your priority date is from today's cutoff by how fast that cutoff has moved on average over the past one to several years, and treats the result as a rough range that can change at any time.

The estimate, step by step
Step	What you do	Example (illustrative only)
1. Gap	Months between your priority date and the current cutoff	Your date is 30 months after the cutoff
2. Speed	Average months the cutoff advanced per year over past bulletins	The cutoff advanced 6 months per year
3. Estimate	Gap divided by speed	About 5 years, if that speed continues
4. Range	Repeat with the slowest and fastest recent years	Gives a best-case / worst-case band

Why estimates often turn out wrong

Demand you cannot see: the bulletin shows the cutoff, not how many people are waiting behind it.
Retrogression: dates can jump forward and then move back.
Spillover: unused family numbers can raise the next year's employment limit, and the reverse.
Fiscal-year resets: the year starts in October, and early-year months often move differently from late-year months.

Where official projections appear

The Visa Bulletin itself sometimes includes notes on expected movement for coming months. Those notes are the only official forward-looking statements; anything else, including ours, is an estimate.

What Pro does

Pro keeps the history of your category and country and shows how far the cutoff moved over recent bulletins, so you can see the trend instead of guessing. It is a statistical view of past movement, not a prediction you should rely on for legal decisions.

Quick answers

How accurate are Visa Bulletin predictions?: Treat any prediction as a range. Movement depends on demand and annual limits that change every year, so even official projections can be revised.
How do I estimate when my priority date will be current from past bulletins?: Measure the gap between your date and the current cutoff, divide by the average yearly movement over several past years, and then look at the fastest and slowest years for a range.
Why does the Visa Bulletin move at the start of the fiscal year in October?: The fiscal year starts on October 1 with a fresh annual allocation of visa numbers, so the State Department often resets or advances cutoffs in the October bulletin.
Where does the State Department publish visa bulletin projections?: Inside the monthly Visa Bulletin itself, in notes after the charts when it has something to say about expected movement.

What to do next

Pro shows the movement history for your category and country.

See Pro

Sources

Checked: November 12, 2026